Keeping up the Energy around the Energy Transition
Photo by Julian Jagtenberg from Pexels
I'm writing this not long after the conclusion of the most recent world summit on Climate Change (COP 26) and as was widely predicted, no camp came away from Glasgow particularly thrilled with the outcomes. There is still so much to do of course, and we must persevere!
But this is not intended to be a criticism of the conference or the participating countries. Instead, I want to capitalize on the surge of news that accompanied the 2-week event. One of the more positive effects of UN Climate Change Conference or COP26 was that it prompted news organizations to resurface a great number of topics and for a brief period at least, make them top of mind again.
There is the main headline of course: the urgency that stems from how ongoing greenhouse gas emissions are continuing to warm the planet.
We also heard dozens of stories about:
clean energy alternatives that are already here (e.g., solar, wind),
promising ongoing research that is proving out new sources of renewable energy (geothermal, hydrogen, fusion),
how energy storage (i.e., batteries) is becoming a critical part of the transition story,
smarter electric grids that are more resilient to outages, and
how all of us will inevitably be driving (or maybe just riding in autonomous) electric vehicles.
Image source here.
But quite a few of the news stories also reminded about related and quite gloomy forecasts related to an inevitable(?) and significant climate migration. Reporters also spoke about the ramifications of climate injustice and how we will need a just energy transition. And it seemed like many stories sought to highlight the global disparities between wealthier, industrialized countries who have been largely caused this crisis and those countries that desperately need resources to confront the challenges that impact them as well.
Zeroing in on Net Zero
The one topic that seems to be uniting various conversations and one that appears to be getting people excited is Net Zero. Most experts seem to be in agreement around the definition of Net Zero, but it is just as important to all climate bystanders that we develop a shared understanding of what this means because the Energy Transition and all its components are aimed at helping the world reach this goal.
Net Zero might sound like zero emissions but it's not. It is simply the point where we achieve a balance between the amount of Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions that we produce and the amount removed from the atmosphere.
Some finer points to highlight here:
We will still be producing carbon and other GHG emissions even if we miraculously hit our Net Zero targets. This will no doubt disappoint those who thought we were heading toward a fossil fuel free future - and that still may happen but not in our lifetimes.
We humans are not producing all the GHGs nor are we expected to remove all the GHGs. In fact, water vapor is the most important "greenhouse gas" and is believed to be responsible for about 60% of the global warming effect. But evaporation and condensation are normal parts of the global water cycle and because water vapor stays lower in the atmosphere than CO2 and other, more harmful gases, it doesn't trap as much heat.
The Net Zero conversations seem to fixate on best-case and worst-case scenarios. I don't find these hypothetical discussions super helpful mostly because I'm convinced we're not going to get everything 100% right and only slightly less confident that we're going to get everything 100% wrong. Once you get behind the idea that the world is already pretty far down the path to irreversible damage, you can see why a clear target of "net zero" by some near-term deadline would be attractive.
I'm convinced we're not going to get everything 100% right and only slightly less confident that we're going to get everything 100% wrong.
Net Zero isn't the finish line
A collective push to a target of Net Zero is useful for everyone on a global level to get and stay focused. But as I mentioned above, hitting that target by 2050 is just where the world restores some semblance of balance. We will still be relying on fossil fuels at that point and we will still be emitting GHGs! The more important goal is to move away from these energy sources and supply the ever-growing demand with cleaner alternatives.
This will take us a very long time to achieve. And the work will be spread out among many industries, regions, processes, practices, technologies - and generations!
A decades-long Energy Transition
Even in the best case, where the world doesn't suffer from any critical setbacks (hey COVID!), a complete Energy Transition that results in the wholesale elimination of fossil fuel-based energy is going to span decades. I think it will be hard to keep everyone's attention on this, even as progress is being made and reported by the press.
How do we keep it in the headlines? Would it help if there were periodic surges? It seems to be working for COVID…
One of the challenges to keeping people interested is that the problem space is so big, no one person is going to be able to monitor all the activity, even if great progress is being made. Folks will likely end up creating a personal connection to one particular area. For example, new turbines along the highway near their city could spark interest in wind farms, both on- and off-shore. The cool new family EV might prompt related conversations in the house about larger batteries or even vehicle to grid (V2G) options. Kindergarteners who see new rooftop solar panels installed on their school gym might grow up and solve nuclear fusion - hey, I know it’s a stretch but it could happen!
The future of clean energy won't be that sexy
The other challenge I see in keeping the Transition top of mind is that many of the likely solutions that we employ are not fascinating to most people. There will be some attention-grabbing stories for sure.
But for every…
Giant, impressive off-shore wind farm
Magic-like Direct Air Capture that scrubs the air clean
Exciting, clean and green hydrogen-powered vehicles
There will be…
Miles of new, underground (i.e. hidden) electricity transmission wires
Point Capture technology that traps and disposes of harmful gases before it ever escapes the factory
AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES
Biofuels created by refining algae grown in boring farms
Image source here.
And then there's the dreary, repetitive work of retrofitting our city's buildings with cleaner, more efficient appliances for heating and cooling. Or the dull, lifeless labor of producing tons and tons of green cement and steel for the next wave of urban construction. And who is going to get excited about trapping cow farts - wait, WHAT? It's true, read about it here.
Staying positive (pun intended)
So maybe it won't be that bad after all. Nuclear Fusion sounds exciting right? And how about Electrofuels? I don't even know that that means but I just like the name of it. And don't get me started about the promise and potential pitfalls of geoengineering, which just may provide some last-ditch effort to save the day!
Here's hoping we can keep up the collective energy around the crisis, keep our attention focused on solutions however small or large and keep our optimism strong for what will likely be a long path ahead.
Image source here.